India Meteorological Department (IMD) has revised its prediction for the monsoons for this year. Science and Technology Minister Harsh Vardhan said that IMD has revised its rainfallprediction from 93% to 88%.
This means that the prediction has been revised from “below normal” to “deficient.”
In April, the Met department announced its first monsoon prediction for the year and it said that “below normal” rainfall is likely for the current year. It had also said that El Nino conditions are likely to persist during monsoon season.
IMD had said that there were 35% chances that rainfall will be below normal this year while 28% chances of a normal monsoon. 33% chances, IMD predicted, were for deficient monsoon.
However, on June 2, IMD revised its prediction from 93% to 88% and said that chances of a “deficient” monsoons are now higher than “below normal” rainfall.
90-96% of rainfall is classified as “below normal.”
This also casts a shadow on India’s growth story.
Raghuram Rajan, governor Reserve Bank of India (RBI), while announcing a 25 basis points reduction in key repo rate also focussed on monsoons.
He said that IMD has predicted a below normal monsoon and astute food management is required to lower chances of inflationary effects arising out of it.